With the top-five sides scheduled to play the bottom-five this weekend, will Round 13 be the week the contenders stamp their authority, or one that alters the course of the season?
Seven sides still harbour finals ambitions as we turn for home, while the battle to avoid relegation is down to just two.
With just six rounds remaining in the home and away season, Round 13 shapes as being one of the decisive weekends of the year.
The game with the most at stake takes place at Warringal Park where Heidelberg hosts Montmorency.
Both sides enter with a 6-4 record, making this the textbook definition of an eight-point game as we move into the pointy end of the season.
The winner will take a big step towards playing finals football in 2021, while the loser could find themselves a game outside the top-five and playing catch-up in the final five rounds of the year.
Heidelberg will be looking to avoid consecutive home defeats after last week proving no match for Bundoora in a 44-point loss, which saw the Tigers drop from second on the ladder to fourth.
The fact they could fall as low as sixth this weekend demonstrates just how tight things are within the top half of the ladder.
Heidelberg managed just six scoring shots for the day against Bundoora, which was quite unbecoming for a side that had been the most prolific scorer across the opening 11 rounds of the season.
While conditions weren’t conducive for high scoring, it is reasonable to assume we will see more attacking flair from the Tigers this weekend – particularly against a team which last weekend was the only top-flight club to score more than 100 points.
Montmorency’s confidence will be sky-high after a stirring come-from-behind victory over North Heidelberg in Round 12 – with the Magpies overcoming a 24-point deficit at three-quarter time to win by 20 points.
Given the run home for each of the sides in finals contention, a loss last week would have put the Magpies in significant danger of missing out on September action in 2021 – however they can ill-afford to let up this week against a Heidelberg outfit on the rebound.
The Magpies will be without suspended pair Stephen McCallum and Will Golds for this week’s game, however they do have most of their best players in red-hot form – none more so than skipper Jesse Donaldson, who now leads the Coaches MVP voting.
Montmorency was victorious when the sides met at Montmorency Park in Round 6, leading a close game throughout to salute by 13 points. Bronson Hill booted four goals in his second game, while Blake Murphy excelled – although he wasn’t part of the Magpies’ line-up last week.
However, the recent matches between the sides at this venue have been dominated by Heidelberg – with the home side winning the past four, including a 125-point triumph in the most recent outing.
Macleod’s red-hot form will be put to the ultimate test when it hosts ladder-leader West Preston-Lakeside at De Winton Park.
The Roos have won three on the trot since the mid-season break to close within a game of the top-five, with last week’s win away to Northcote Park giving Christian Stagliano’s side its fifth win from its past six matches.
It is impossible to discount the credibility of the Roos’ winning run given they have knocked off three teams placed above them on the ladder, however the reigning premier has been in a class of its own this year and it will take only Macleod’s best to score an upset win this week.
Crunching the numbers, it is highly likely that 10 wins will be required to secure a place in the finals this year. Given Macleod takes a 5-5 record into the final six rounds, it appears the Roos will need to win five of their last six to play finals this year.
But if they can find a way to inflict West Preston-Lakeside’s second defeat of the year, the Roos will give themselves every chance of pushing into the top-five come season’s end.
They hold a 3-1 record at De Winton Park this year – which includes wins over both North Heidelberg and Greensborough – and play four of their final six games on their home ground.
West Preston-Lakeside moved yet another step closer to clinching its first ever minor premiership in first division with a dominant 66-point victory over Whittlesea at the Whittlesea Showgrounds in Round 11.
The Roosters’ incredible depth was on full display, with Garrett McDonagh, Max Dreher and Kobe Brown all coming into the line-up. That ensured there was no dip in performance despite the likes of Nathan Valladares, Carl Adams and Adam Valeri all coming out of the side.
We are fast running out of superlatives to describe the reigning premiers and it is impossible to find any weakness in their game.
Complacency and a lack of hunger can hit any side that has achieved prolonged success. However, West Preston-Lakeside has not displayed even a slither of those traits, instead displaying a steely determination in their hunt for the three-peat.
West Preston-Lakeside has won the past five outings between the two sides and was 36 points to the good when they met at J.E. Moore Park in Round 7 – with Ahmed Saad and Liam McVeigh each booting four goals in the comfortable win.
North Heidelberg returns to Shelley Reserve where it will host a Hurstbridge outfit which has pushed top-five sides the past two weeks.
It will be a very different looking North Heidelberg side that takes on the Bridges and they won’t have too much time adjust to ensure they hit the ground running, with this a must-win match for the Bulldogs to ensure they keep their spot in the top-five.
Already without the likes of Brent Harvey, Billy Hogan, Doug Morris and Adam Braendler last week, the Bulldogs will enter this match without suspended trio Jesse Tardio, Jackson Starvecich and Liam Nunan.
The Bulldogs will also have to cast aside the disappointment of last week letting slip a huge opportunity to cement their place in the top-half of the table – coughing up a big lead at Montmorency Park.
Thirty-four points ahead at quarter time and still four goals to the good at three quarter time, the Bulldogs lost their way in the last term to suffer their most disappointing defeat of the year.
They now must bounce back immediately, with several sides outside the top-five closing in below.
Hurstbridge took it right up to Heidelberg in Round 11 and was just as competitive for three quarters against Greensborough last week, with just 10 points separating the sides at the last change.
The Boro broke the shackles in the final term when they booted five unanswered goals, however the Bridges may fancy their chances this week against an undermanned North Heidelberg.
They will have to overcome a poor head-to-head record to cause an upset, with North Heidelberg victorious in all five outings between the sides since the Bulldogs returned to the top flight in 2018.
Four of those matches have resulted in margins of less than 25 points, however the blowout occurred in their most recent game – when Shane Harvey booted eight goals, including his 1000th for the club, to steer the Bulldogs to a 63-point triumph at Ben Frilay Oval in Round 3.
Harvey last week played his best game since that occasion, when he booted five goals at Montmorency Park. With many of his star teammates absent this week, yet another masterclass from the legendary forward may be needed to steer his side to victory.
Greensborough and Whittlesea meet at Greensborough War Memorial Park, where the home side will be fancied to cement its place in the top-three.
The Boro ended a two-game losing streak last week, with a final-quarter burst helping to secure a 39-point triumph over Hurstbridge and a return to third spot on the ladder.
Greensborough currently sits a game and percentage clear of the three teams directly below on the ladder. While they haven’t been at their best since the return from the break, the Boro are in the box seat to secure a double-chance in the finals and their fate is in their hands.
Last week’s win was workman-like, with many of the club’s best players leading the way – with Chris Clark, Nick Riddle and Jack Johnston all playing well, alongside Ben Pannam and John Desmond.
Whittlesea enters this week’s game on the back of its second-biggest loss of the season. The Eagles trailed West Preston-Lakeside by five goals at quarter time and were never in the hunt in a 66-point defeat.
The Eagles will have to defy history to secure their second win of the year. Greensborough has won 12 of 13 matches between the sides in Division 1, with Whittlesea’s sole triumph a five-point win at Greensborough War Memorial Park back in Round 18, 2016.
Greensborough has won the past five encounters by an average of 65 points and has scored more than 110 in each of the past four matches.
However, this clash looks anything but a shootout, with Greensborough averaging just 65 points per game since the mid-season break, while Whittlesea’s highest score of the season is just 72 points.
Bundoora will be favoured to secure a fourth-straight win when it hosts Northcote Park at Yulong Reserve.
Over the past three weeks the Bulls have confirmed they are the real deal, with dominant wins over fellow contenders Greensborough and Heidelberg pushing them up to second place on the ladder.
Bundoora’s midfield is in outstanding form, with Luke Collins, Kain Proctor, Bailey Thompson and Kyle Green all dominant in the win over the Tigers, while Nathan Thomas has been consistently good throughout the entire campaign.
While the Bulls will be looking no further than this week’s game, they do face an extremely tough run home in the final three rounds, so the next three games are vital to ensure they maintain their buffer on the chasing pack.
Northcote Park’s winless run extended to 10 games following last week’s 37-point home defeat to Macleod, where the Cougars managed just two goals at Bill Lawry Oval.
The importance of next week’s trip to Whittlesea is heightened with each additional defeat the Cougars suffer, with it becoming increasingly likely that a two-win season could be enough to avoid relegation this year.
Percentage could well become a major factor in this year’s relegation race and Northcote Park has done exceptionally well in recent matches to stick close enough to teams in the finals battle.
They have lost their past three by an average of just 25 points, three goals fewer than Whittlesea over the same period.
Bundoora prevailed by 27 points when the sides met at Bill Lawry Oval in Round 5. The Bulls looked headed for a big win when four goals ahead at quarter time, however Northcote Park hung in to make it a relatively even contest thereafter.
