The final month of the home and away season is upon us and while the number of sides in finals contention diminished last week, the number of flag contenders may have increased.
Nail-biting defeats look to have extinguished Bundoora and Hurstbridge’s hopes of a top-five finish, however West Preston-Lakeside’s rampaging win over North Heidelberg confirmed the reigning premier is very much in premiership contention, even though it still has work to do to lock in a top-five finish.
The finals picture could become even clearer post Round 15, with each of this week’s matches pitting a top-five side against a team in the bottom-five. Should the higher-ranked side win each match, a six-point gap will emerge between fifth and sixth place.
However, that is far from a formality and the one thing we have come to accept this season is to expect the unexpected.
One of the most important games of Round 15 takes place at Montmorency Park North Oval where Montmorency hosts West Preston-Lakeside.
With seven wins from its past eight matches, West Preston-Lakeside has surged into premiership contention. But despite their red-hot form, the Roosters could be clinging to a top-five place by just percentage if they were to lose this week.
It’s not just the number of wins that the reigning premiers are accumulating which makes them a genuine flag threat – it is the manner in which they are winning, particularly over the past two weeks.
After thrashing Macleod by 61 points in the grand final rematch, the Roosters were equally outstanding in a 60-point drubbing of North Heidelberg last week – booting 18 goals to six after trailing by two goals early in the piece.
Co-captain Ahmed Saad has been a model of consistency, even when the chips were down during the opening six weeks. His nine-goal effort last week would send fear through all opposition sides, with there being no limit to what the Roosters can achieve when Saad is in that kind of form.
Saad has 59 goals this season, which includes 20 goals over the past four weeks. He sits 12 clear of Shane Harvey atop the goal kicking table and will reach a major milestone this week, with his first goal set to take him to 200 club goals for the Roosters.
Saad is the Roosters’ match winner, however the form of Alex Federico, Jackson Clarke, Luke Lirosi and Ozgur Uysal means they are far from a one-trick pony. Meanwhile, the inclusion of Nick Robortella could be telling as the Roosters push to become the first team this decade to defend a premiership.
Montmorency will enter this week’s game with just as much vigour after securing arguably its most important win of the season in a thriller over Bundoora at Yulong Reserve. The result kept the Magpies within two points of fifth spot as they hunt their first finals appearance since 2014.
The Magpies looked in control early and booted five of the first six goals, but then had to guts it out and twice came from behind in the last quarter to win by three points. The match winner came from the most unlikely source, with defender Josh Mills sneaking forward to kick his first career goal.
The sixth-placed Magpies have gone win-loss for the past six weeks but are going to have to string together consecutive wins to have any hope of playing finals and this week’s game appears there biggest of the year – at home to a side vying for a similar position on the table.
Jesse Donaldson, Jai Robinson and Patrick Fitzgerald continue to lead with aplomb, helping to cover the absence of the likes of key duo Stephen McCallum and Matthew White. Meanwhile Stefan Uzelac continues to emerge. The 19-year-old has played every game this year and has ben named in the Magpies’ best eight times.
The last clash between the sides was an absorbing battle back in Round 8. Montmorency led throughout the first half, but a six-goal to two final term helped West Preston-Lakeside to a 26-point win – led by strong performances from Jackson Clarke, Ozgur Uysal and Ahmed Saad (six goals).
Another game that will have major implications on the top-five takes place at De Winton Park, where Macleod hosts Hurstbridge.
The Roos are back in fifth spot after last week scraping past Lower Plenty and can take a major step towards securing a sixth-consecutive finals appearance with a win this week.
Hurstbridge languishes in ninth place after a heartbreaking defeat to Heidelberg last week and simply must win this weekend to keep its very slim finals hopes alive. A win could push the Bridges within two points of the top-five, although a loss will all but end their finals dream.
Macleod looked headed for a percentage-boosting win when it piled on the first five goals in last week’s clash against Lower Plenty, but then struggled against the competition’s bottom-placed side.
The Roos fell behind in the last term, but fortunately found another gear when headed and managed to score a 10-point win at Montmorency Park South Oval – led by Kurt Manuel, Brad Leggett and Hamish Paynter.
Consistency continues to plague the Roos, with great home wins over Heidelberg and Bundoora in rounds 11 and 12 followed by a poor effort at West Preston-Lakeside and then a less than convincing performance last week.
Nevertheless, the fact remains that the Roos have won three of their past four games and they will this week regain 2018 Frank Rosbrook medallist Lucas Hobbs and Matt Dornauf, in a welcome boost ahead of a massive final month of the season.
Hurstbridge’s ladder position belies its performance, with the Bridges proving to be one of the competition’s biggest improvers despite sitting just one place off the bottom of the ladder.
The Bridges took it right up to Heidelberg last week in a fast paced and highly entertaining game – leading for much of the contest before conceding three of the final four goals to lose by 10 points.
The past month have proven the Bridges well and truly belong in the top-flight, recording wins against Lower Plenty and Bundoora, while taking it right up to Heidelberg and North Heidelberg in close defeats.
Unfortunately, a slow start to the year looks as though it will come back to haunt them, with the Bridges likely now needing to win all four of their remaining games to play finals, while also needing other results to go their way.
At the very least, they can use the next month to start building towards 2020 and one more win will give the club their highest number of wins in a Division 1 campaign – something they will be hopeful of achieving this week after downing the Roos in their Round 7 clash.
North Heidelberg and Northcote Park are both on the rebound when they meet at Shelley Reserve.
Despite being soundly beaten by West Preston-Lakeside last week, the Bulldogs are likely to still be favoured by most tipsters in this encounter, where a win would take them once step closer towards a double chance in the finals.
Northcote Park was undefeated entering the last clash between the sides back in Round 5 but was outscored 13 goals to two in the second half in an 82-point thrashing. The Cougars hold a 2-8 record since that game, slipping from second on the ladder to seventh.
Nevertheless, they won’t make the trip to the Kennel without hope of an upset – due in part to North Heidelberg’s dip in form over the past two months. The Bulldogs have recorded a 3-1-4 record over the past eight games and have shown some vulnerability with key players missing.
Brent Harvey and Billy Hogan have returned over the past two weeks to strengthen the Bulldogs’ midfield, but the loss of Jesse Tardio to Williamstown’s VFL side last week was far from ideal against a Roosters’ line-up hitting its straps at the right time of year.
Scoring has certainly dried up over the past eight weeks. The Bulldogs averaged 102 points a game over the first six rounds, where they scored five wins and lost the other by less than a kick. However, they have booted just 62 goals over the past seven weeks – at an average of less than nine a match.
There is no doubting the Bulldogs have a vast array of players capable of kicking a bag – however they’ve struggled to all click at the same time and they will hope to correct that before another finals campaign.
Northcote Park sits just two points outside the top-five, however its poor percentage means it will have to win at least three of its next four games to feature in the finals.
The Cougars finish the year with matches against North Heidelberg, Macleod, Hurstbridge and Heidelberg. Three of those four games are played on the road, and the Cougars will have to score an upset over at least one of the Bulldogs or Tigers to play finals this year.
They were right in the hunt against Greensborough last week when they trailed the ladder-leader by just five points at half time. However, they were goalless in the second half in a 53-point loss. It was the second time in three weeks they haven’t kicked a goal after half time.
It’s long been a cause for concern for the Cougars, who have been outscored in the second half in nine of their past 10 games. Over that period the Cougars have kicked 28 goals to their opponents’ 82 in the second half of matches.
Jordan Perry has been in strong form since returning to the side in Round 10 and continues to lead the midfield group. Perry received the most Coaches MVP votes of any player on the ground in last week’s game against Greensborough, despite the Cougars losing soundly.
Bundoora hosts Greensborough at Yulong Reserve, in a game that holds less prestige than normal battles between the two old rivals.
A fifth-consecutive loss last weekend means the Bulls look certain to miss the finals for the first time since 2001. The only way they can avoid such a fate would be to win their last four game – each against top-four sides – and hope other results go their way.
The eighth-placed Bulls would need a major reversal in form to score an upset against any of their upcoming opponents, let alone all four – making it a near impossible task for them to compete in a 19th-consecutive finals series.
Luck hasn’t been on their side over the past two weeks, with the defeats to Montmorency and Hurstbridge coming by a combined total of four points. Had both results gone the other way, the Bulls would be sitting as high as fifth on the table.
Last week’s match was almost a polar opposite to the week prior – where the Bulls coughed up a big lead to a fast finishing Hurstbridge. Instead it was the Bulls who overcame a slow start last week – hitting the lead in the last quarter after trailing by four goals during the second term.
While the final result didn’t go their way, there were positives to take away which would have the club confident of causing an upset or two before the season finishes. Dale Marshall played his first game since Round 7, while Luke Collins continued his strong form and featured in the Coaches MVP voting for the third week in a row.
Greensborough now needs to win just two more games to claim the minor premiership and will hope to have that wrapped up before hosting Heidelberg at War Memorial Park in Round 17.
Ahead by 21 points at quarter time, the Boro produced arguably their worst quarter of the season in the second term against Northcote Park last week but responded emphatically to score a big win to keep their unblemished home record intact.
The second half effort to keep the Cougars to three points was an incredible feat. The Boro have conceded an average of just 50 points a game this season and have coughed up just 97 points over the past two weeks despite the absence of defensive general Nick Riddle.
They will be wary of a Bundoora side which may have the shackles lifted this week, although the most recent outing between the duo in Round 6 resulted in a dominant win for the ladder-leader.
Trailing by five points at quarter time, the Boro kept the Bulls to just one goal across the final three quarters in a runaway 73-point win. Chris Clark, Tom Bell and John Desmond were outstanding, while Brody Tickell was lively with three goals.
Round 15 concludes with Heidelberg hosting Lower Plenty at Warringal Park.
With just one month remaining in the home and away season, Heidelberg is ramping up preparations for a tilt at another premiership, while Lower Plenty is set for relegation after managing just two wins for the season.
Despite the disparity in ladder positions, Heidelberg won’t be taking its opponent lightly after the previous match between the sides this season ended with the biggest upset of the year.
On that occasion the Bears rallied from 22 points behind in the final term to score a four-point win at Montmorency Park South Oval. Corey Sleep was the hero with six goals, while Tom Keys was also damaging.
However, since that Round 8 encounter the sides have experienced vastly different form lines. The Tigers have gone on to win five of their past six to lock in a top-two finish, while the Bears have dropped six in a row.
Heidelberg held off a determined Hurstbridge last week to come away with its 11th win of the season, in a 10-point triumph at Ben Frilay Oval. The Tigers trailed at the first three breaks but rallied late on the back of great performances from Jack Blair, Sam Gilmore and Lachlan Wilson.
The match marked a return to the field for Sam Grimley and Will Goss, which helped offset the absence of Chaz Sargeant, Tom Sullivan, Josh Gribben, Anthony Bonaddio and Aaron Crispe – all of whom will be vital additions at the pointy end of the year.
In their absence, Christian Buykx-Smith played one of his best games of the season and is showing great versatility with his ability to play at either end of the field. It’s a trait the Tigers pride themselves on, with Josh Minogue another who can hold down a key post at both ends.
Heidelberg won’t be complacent this week after the previous outing between the sides. They will also be wary given the Bears past two performances – which have seen them fall just short against both Northcote Park and Macleod.
The Bears have lost both games by 10 points against sides who desperately needed to win to stay in finals contention. On both occasions they have overcome slow starts to work their way back into the game, only to fall just short.
Lower Plenty clearly has one eye on the future and continues to put time into the next crop of players that will take it forward. This includes Daniel Copsey and Andrew White, who both showed good signs against Macleod last week.
